Next year’s midterm elections offer the Democrats an opportunity to win back power in one or both chambers of Congress and act as a check to the largely unrestrained Trump administration. But a blue wave in 2026 is far from certain. In addition to a tough Senate map and redistricting battles that could cost them seats in the House of Representatives, Democrats have consistently held low favorability ratings all year and are bleeding registered voters, according to analysis from The New York Times.
Republicans, meanwhile, have successfully chipped away at the traditional Democratic coalition, winning over white working-class voters and making inroads with the Latinx and Black communities. Even modest shifts in support can spell disaster for Democrats.
But opportunity cuts both ways. If Democrats can energize their traditional voting groups and siphon off some voters unhappy with lawmakers currently in power, they could ride that coalition to victory. For those within the Democratic Party looking to build out their playbook, local races like the mayoral race in Lake Charles, Louisiana, could offer valuable insights. New quantitative and qualitative post-election research from the Southern Poverty Law Center Action Fund, Vote Save America and Fair Fight explores how Marshall Simien Jr. built a new coalition in Lake Charles to defeat the Republican incumbent and become the city’s first Black mayor.
How did Marshall Simien win in Lake Charles?
Sitting in the southwest region of Louisiana, Lake Charles is the state’s fifth most populous city, home to nearly 85,000 residents, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. More than 46% of residents are Black, while a little over 42% are white. Median household income is about $55,000, with more than a fifth of residents living in poverty.
Hammered by a string of catastrophic weather events that started with Hurricane Laura in 2020, the city has struggled to rebuild, resulting in many residents leaving the area. Some insurers have also abandoned the city’s residents as part of a broader insurance crisis in the state.
In May, Marshall Simien Jr., a Lake Charles native and former city councilman, unseated two-term incumbent Mayor Nic Hunter, who had overseen the city’s recovery efforts. Simien eked out the win in a tight race with just over 52% of the vote. He previously ran for the position as a Democrat in 2017, but chose to run as an independent in this race.
Powering his win, Black voters increased their turnout by nearly 1,500 people, while white turnout increased by only 600 voters, significantly reshaping the electorate. Simien won about 93% of Black voters and narrowed the turnout gap between white and Black voters from 9 percentage points to 5 percentage points.
The margins mattered for Simien. While he only captured about 18.5% of white voters, that number was actually an improvement over the performances of typical Democratic candidates in Louisiana, who generally win less than 15% of white voters. His modest crossover appeal helped tip the scales in his favor.
What community issues drove his coalition of supporters to vote?
To understand what shaped voters’ choices, the SPLC Action Fund and its allies commissioned post-election surveys with 60 voters, as well as more in-depth interviews with nine voters from different backgrounds. While the sample size was small, the insights can still help candidates understand what encourages turnout.
So, what motivated voters in Lake Charles?
1. A desire for transformative change, rather than incremental improvements.
The devastating impact of extreme weather events created an interconnected web of challenges that has made living in Lake Charles difficult for many of the city’s residents on all sides of the political spectrum. Directly feeling the sting of the insurance crisis and the destructive hurricanes superseded loyalty to one political party.
2. Frustration with unfair power structures that benefited wealthy residents during recovery.
Voters felt that leaders were primarily concerned with addressing the needs of connected elites and established wealthy families, who were able to use their influence on city officials to decide which development projects were prioritized. These elites had little accountability over how the city’s money was spent at the expense of struggling citizens who needed help.
3. Existential concerns about the future of Lake Charles.
Between economic stagnation, uneven hurricane recovery and rising crime, many of the Lake Charles voters surveyed were worried about whether the city was moving in the right direction and whether officials were acting fast enough to address the quality-of-life challenges that were causing young people to leave for better opportunities.
How can Democrats respond to community concerns to drive turnout and win back voters?
In the wake of devastating natural disasters, many Lake Charles voters saw the primary purpose of their local government as addressing damaged infrastructure and prioritizing development projects. They were looking for an advocate for the entire city. Simien tapped into this desire, pushing a “One Lake Charles” unity message and following through by consistently engaging communities across all demographics.
He also had the benefit of running as an independent, which appealed to some voters looking for a practical candidate in the ideological middle ground who could choose the best ideas from both parties. Swing voters surveyed had less positive views of the Democratic Party, which they criticized as lacking vision and ignoring the concerns of working-class families.
Still, Simien’s success provides a model for local Democrats looking to make inroads with voters. Of course, every race will be different based on local issues. But with a clear vision and distinct brand from the national party, Democrats have a chance to flip Republican seats.
Strategic drivers of success
- Recruit community-rooted candidates: Find candidates with authentic local ties who can position themselves as advocates for working people. Prioritize candidates who have spent years building relationships across all demographics and can embody the “everyone versus the wealthy and powerful” message rather than just adopt its messaging.
- Target elite gatekeeping: The “everyone versus the wealthy and powerful” frame proved decisive across party lines. Campaigns should identify local examples of favoritism for elites, whether in development decisions, resource allocation or access to opportunities, and position their candidates as advocates for community-wide representation.
- Ground appeals in daily realities and local stories: Simien won by connecting abstract concepts like “fairness” to concrete experiences voters face every day (potholes, insurance struggles, uneven recovery). Campaigns should lead with tangible policy proposals that would improve people’s daily lives, using specific local stories as proof points.
- Offer forward vision: Lift of messages of change that articulate positive alternatives rather than just criticism. Campaigns should couple critiques of current conditions with compelling visions of a possible future.
Rebuilding the Democratic brand at the local level
Whether or not Democrats are able to succeed in the midterm elections, there are still plenty of opportunities for the party to build power from the ground up in local elections. But at all levels, they need to shore up the support of their traditional voting blocs, including Black voters and white working-class voters.
Lake Charles may be a unique case study in some ways, but the economic hardship that voters face, the resentment for unfair power structures, and the desire for transformational change are all issues that could play an important role in the choices voters across the country make in the next election. However, it will be up to Democrats to connect the dots and apply the lessons of Lake Charles.
Read the full report: Building Democratic Coalitions in the South: Evidence From Lake Charles Mayoral Race.
Image at top: Marshall Simien Jr. became the first Black mayor of Lake Charles, Louisiana, in May 2025. (Illustration by SPLC; original images from City of Lake Charles, Louisiana, website and IStock)