JACKSON, Miss. — While Republicans still hold an advantage in Mississippi’s 2026 race for U.S. senator, sagging favorability numbers for Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith could open up a path to victory for Democrats, according to a new poll released by the SPLC Action Fund and Impact Research.
The poll of likely general election voters conducted in mid-April finds that Mississippi voters are still more Republican-aligned, with a generic GOP Senate candidate up by 13 points. However, Democrat Scott Colom has closed the gap with voters, trailing Hyde-Smith by only 3 points in both a head-to-head race and in a three-way race with independent candidate Ty Pinkins. An SPLC Action Fund survey conducted in June 2025 found Colom behind by 13 points at that time.
“Everybody who has been watching Mississippi closely over the past decade knows that our highest-profile races have been hotly contested,” said Brandon Jones, director of political campaigns, SPLC Action Fund. “By no means does this poll suggest a slam dunk for Scott Colom, but it does show that Mississippi is in play once again. Sen. Hyde-Smith is increasingly unpopular, which makes her vulnerable in a political environment that has not been kind to Republican candidates.”
The poll offers a number of insights about the state of the race for each candidate, including:
- More voters know who Sen. Hyde-Smith is, but a majority hold an unfavorable impression of her. While her name recognition with voters far exceeds that of her challengers, 55% of voters have either a somewhat or very unfavorable view of her, and 53% said that they would prefer to vote for someone other than Hyde-Smith in the next election.
- Scott Colom is making progress on introducing himself to voters, which is the key to his success. Colom has seen a bump of more than 20% in name recognition, which has increased his total favorability rating to 28%, up from 10% in June. And, when provided more information about the background of the candidates, Colom actually takes the lead in a three-way race, besting Hyde-Smith 41% to 38%.
- Independent Ty Pinkins has the potential to play spoiler for either candidate. Most voters may be unfamiliar with Pinkins, but he is still currently polling at 6%, a number that doubles when voters are given more information about his campaign. His previous political affiliations would suggest that he hurts the Democratic nominee, but of the voters who said they would cast a ballot for Pinkins after learning more information about all of the candidates, approximately 70% identified as Republican.
In an increasingly tight race, candidates who want to break through with Mississippians need to focus on affordability. About a third of voters ranked inflation and cost of living as one of their top two priorities for Congress to address, followed by government corruption at 27%.
“Mississippi voters are fed up with the high cost of living and political scandals and corruption from elected officials,” said Kevin Akins, partner, Impact Research. “This should serve as a warning sign for Cindy Hyde-Smith — a senator who is a villain in her home state with a record of raising prices on working families. A perfect storm is brewing in Mississippi, and this has all the makings of a competitive race.”
Explore detailed breakdowns of how participants responded in the full crosstabs.
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About the SPLC Action Fund
SPLC Action Fund is a catalyst for racial justice in the South and beyond, working in partnership with communities to dismantle white supremacy, strengthen intersectional movements and advance the human rights of all people. For more information, visit www.splcactionfund.org.