By Brandon Jones, Director of Political Campaigns, SPLC Action Fund
Democrats face an uphill battle to retake the Senate in 2026 and are pinning their hopes on elections in North Carolina and Maine. However, a new poll from the SPLC Action Fund shows that a path to turning the Senate blue could run through the Deep South, specifically Mississippi.
According to a poll of Mississippi voters, Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is entering the 2026 election cycle with a net negative favorability rating. Among voters polled in June, 44% view the senator favorably, while 45% hold an unfavorable view of her.
These numbers may seem close, but Hyde-Smith is actually faring worse than Gov. Reeves was at this point in his race, which he only won by about 26,000 votes. The takeaway for Democrats should be that they can’t dismiss states like Mississippi as unwinnable in the midterms because voters are demanding new leadership. There is a real opportunity to capitalize on their dissatisfaction in Mississippi and close that narrowing voting gap that we saw in the governor’s race.
What else are we hearing from Mississippians about the upcoming Senate race?
- The senator’s image problem may be worse than it appears at first glance. While overall favorability and unfavorability numbers are close, more than a third of voters reported having a very unfavorable view of Hyde-Smith in comparison to just 17% who have a very favorable view. She also struggles with crucial independent voters, 65% of whom hold an unfavorable view compared to a 20% favorable view.
- Mississippians want change. If the election were held today, only 38% of voters would vote to reelect Hyde-Smith, while 46% said that they would prefer to vote for someone else. Among independents, more than 60% indicated that they would vote for an alternative to the sitting senator.
- A win for a Democratic candidate requires turning out and persuading Black voters. For Democrats to have a real chance at victory, Black voters need to make up between 34% and 36% of the Mississippi electorate. However, they shouldn’t take for granted that Black voters will automatically choose the Democratic candidate. Although 82% of likely Black voters said they would vote for someone other than Hyde-Smith, 13% remain undecided.
When elections are as close as they have been in Mississippi, the margins matter. If Democrats are looking to Black voters to power their win in the state, they need to more closely examine what has motivated this group of voters to show up at the polls and what is driving the small but important gender gap in support for the different political parties. Democrats have a chance to unseat an unpopular candidate in Mississippi, but they need to enter the race today to present an alternative vision for the future of the state that voters can get behind.
Click here to download the full results of the poll.
The poll was conducted by Impact Research. Impact Research conducted 500 interviews with likely November 2026 voters statewide in Mississippi from June 18 to 22, 2025, using a combination of live telephone interviews on mobile and landline phones and text-to-web. The expected margin of sampling error is +/-4.4% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error for subgroups varies and is higher.